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Using the Secretary Problem to Hire the Best Engineers

Hiring the right candidate for an engineering position is a complex task. Employers must balance efficiency with the goal of selecting the best possible applicant. One intriguing method for approaching this challenge is the Secretary Problem, a classic mathematical strategy used to optimize selection in a sequential decision-making process. But does it work in today's hiring environment, and is it practical given real-world constraints?

What is the Secretary Problem?

The Secretary Problem is a famous mathematical decision-making strategy that helps select the best option from a sequential pool of candidates. The algorithm works as follows:

  1. Review and reject the first n/e candidates (where e ≈ 2.718 is Euler’s number).
  2. Set the best candidate among them as a benchmark.
  3. Continue interviewing, selecting the first candidate who is better than the benchmark.
  4. If no better candidate appears, select the last applicant by default.

This method maximizes the probability (about 37%) of picking the best candidate.

Applying the Secretary Problem to Hiring Engineers

Let’s say a company is hiring for a software engineering role and has 100 applicants. The Secretary Problem suggests they should review and reject the first 37 candidates, using them to set a standard. Then, they should hire the first person who surpasses that benchmark.

This approach works best under these conditions:

  • Candidates arrive in a random order (no bias in early vs. late applications).
  • Employers cannot go back to previous candidates.
  • The goal is to hire the single best candidate, rather than a group of strong applicants.

Problems with this approach

While mathematically sound, the Secretary Problem has practical limitations in hiring:

  1. Time & Resource Costs – Interviewing 37% of candidates just to set a benchmark can be costly, especially for large applicant pools.
  2. Losing Strong Candidates – If the best candidate appears early, they will be rejected automatically.
  3. Assumption of a Fixed Pool – Modern hiring often involves ongoing applications and rolling hiring processes, which break the strict sequential decision model.
  4. Candidate Experience – Delaying decisions or rejecting early candidates outright may harm employer branding and deter top talent.

Does This Make Sense Today?

In today's hiring landscape, the Secretary Problem might still be useful as a general heuristic rather than a rigid rule. Companies might adopt a modified version where they:

  • Set a flexible evaluation period rather than a strict 37% rejection phase.
  • Revisit past applicants when possible, using modern applicant tracking systems.
  • Consider multiple top-tier hires instead of focusing on just one “best” candidate.

Ultimately, while the Secretary Problem provides a compelling framework, real-world hiring requires a blend of data-driven strategies, structured interviews, and flexibility. Due to its inherent constraints, companies that rigidly apply this method risk missing out on great talent.

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